领先经济指数

Leading Index 领先经济指数

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What Is The Leading Index?
A key feature of the Leading Index is its ability to signal a change in the direction of the economy's growth.

How Does It Work?
The index is a composite of five  components that tend to anticipate changes in the business cycle.  These are: 

Residential Building Permits
Consumer Expectations
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
Help Wanted Advertising
Retail Sales of Durable Goods

What Is The Moving Average and How Is It  Interpreted?
The moving average helps you to interpret changes in the index.  If the index is consistently above its moving average the economy is likely to continue to expand for the next several months.  On the other hand, if the index is consistently below its moving average, the economy is likely to enter a period of contraction within the next several months.

Has The Leading Index Been Successful In Predicting The Alternating Waves of Expansion and Contraction?
In a word, "Yes."  As the historical series at the right shows, the Washington PMSA experienced a recession beginning in July 1990 and ending in May 1992.  The Leading Index peaked in November 1988 and then began to decline providing an advanced warning that the Washington Area's economy was likely to slowdown in the coming months.  The start date of the recession was July 1990--eight months after the peak of the Leading Index.

The Leading Index peaked most recently in January 2000.  The economy, as indicated by the Coincident Index, peaked 10 months later in November 2000.